Georgia vs Russia

The current conflict in Georgia poses an interesting question about NATO.

If Georgia was a member of NATO - would the other NATO states have come to Georgia's aid militarily?

It is interesting because both Ukraine and Georgia were denied the Membership Action Plan they requested. The request was opposed most vocally by Germany and France over concerns of angering Russia. It seems that Germany and France were clairvoyant and foresaw a conflict with Russia and Georgia that they did not want involved in.

So if Georgia were a member wouldn't that same fear of angering Russia still prevent the European members of the alliance from acting?

The US is over committed and could probably only lead symbolic air strikes against Russia troops as they moved into Georgia. But would the US even attempt air strikes against the Soviet Union, our former cold war foe, who still owns a sizable nuclear stockpile. NATO intervention in Georgia could be the beginning of WWIII - hopefully with more limited aims that MAD (mutually assured destruction).

So if no one intervenes, what is the purpose of NATO? A collective defense agreement where the members only help each other if it doesn't piss off Russia?

The future of the Ukraine will be interesting to watch. If NATO accepts the Ukraine to prevent military action by the Soviet Union - member states will need to be ready to back up their bluff and stop Russian aggression. If NATO again reject Ukrainian membership then Europe and the US are acknowledging a return to the status quo of the cold war - Russia surrounded by friendly buffer states.

But this new cold war - if realized will be much more complex than the last one with a rising China and a continuing ideological battle against radical Islam.

Another interesting signs of a returning cold war is the timing of the Russian invasion of Georgia - during the Olympics. The Olympics were hosted in Beijing this year essentially as a symbol and showcase of China's arrival as a world power. While all the media attention was focused on Beijing, Russia sent a clear message, "Don't forget about us!! We are still a power to be reckoned with."

As a final thought - there is no word for subtle in the Russian language. This comment was brought up during class and offers an interesting lens through which to view Russian behavior and actions. However, I was unable to confirm this fact. If anyone has conclusive proof that this is not just an urban legend / old wives tale - let me know.

Article ref. Georgia/NATO membership